Roster
Optimism
It was easy to lose track of the last two years with Zach Edey crunching opponents like a trash compactor, but Purdue is much more than Big Maple. Matt Painter has been churning out gems for years, and though last year was his Mona Lisa, do not expect him to suddenly splatter the colors all over the canvas.
The Boilermakers have the consistency of a steam engine, chugging down the tracks in a way that surely makes Purdue Pete proud. Purdue has been in the KenPom top 25 for nine straight seasons, and in more than half of them, the Boilers have landed in the top 10. Sure, Edey is gone, but both conductors – Painter and Braden Smith – are back for another journey.
Smith’s mastery of the offense is a great foundation for the post-Edey era. He made great strides as a sophomore, raising his assist/turnover ratio from 2.22 to 2.81 and allowing Painter to mix in far more ball screens to the Boilers’ endless supply of half court sets. The post up will always be a cornerstone of the attack, but check that uptick in pick-and-roll at the bottom – that’s the Smith effect:
Smith will no longer have the safety net of a lob to Edey (or their secret weapon, a step-through bounce pass to a front-of-the-rim seal), but his elbow jumper continues to evolve, and his pace and vision will remain weapons. Spot up threat and classmate Fletcher Loyer continues to improve, as well, and he will be a key cog around the main action. His intermittent explosions – 27 points against Tennessee in Maui, 27 more vs. Arizona in Indianapolis, three vital triples against NC State at the Final Four – show the scoring potential is more than just “shooter” when given the opportunity.
The post up certainly will not die with Trey Kaufman-Renn ascending to a starring role inside. Hailed as potential breakout star last year, TKR remained in the Edey shadow, but it is now his time to be the Boilers’ featured interior weapon:
When Edey sat last year, TKR had a 27.1% usage rate (compared to 18.2% when playing alongside Edey) and racked up an insane 93.9 free throw rate. So no, do not expect Purdue’s proclivity to get to the charity stripe to end with Edey gone, and TKR is likely to be highly productive in his prominent new role.
The rim onslaught won’t stop with TKR, either. Caleb Furst fell out of favor last year, but he’s always been a terrific two-way rebounder and was an outstanding finisher while starting 33 of 69 games in his first two seasons. He pairs better with the more mobile Kaufman-Renn than he did with Edey’s ball-dominance. Plus, Painter has two more behemoths in the assembly line: 7-2 Will Berg, who spent last year wrestling with Edey in practice, and new 7-4 behemoth Daniel Jacobsen, a fast-developing rim monster who excelled for the USA in the FIBA U18 Tourney this offseason (9.2ppg on 65% shooting, 7.0rpg, 3.2bpg in just 16.3mpg).
It should be noted that Purdue gets to post ups in a more sophisticated way than most teams. Painter does not just plop someone on the block. Instead, they get there after some sort of misdirection: setting a down screen and sealing, rolling into position off a pick-and-roll, or other creative cutting/screening. Preparing for Purdue’s infinite stream of sets can be a headache for the opposition.
The defense might take a step back without Edey blotting out the sun at the basket, but Jacobsen will be a per-minute monster, and Purdue will not lack size. Painter smartly went heavy drop coverage with such a colossus waiting inside, but the mobility of Furst and TKR could allow him to be more flexible and play at the level of the screen some (I still doubt they switch much with those two).
Painter can also afford to get a little more aggressive on the perimeter with a couple high-upside pieces waiting in the wings. Cam Heide and Myles Colvin ooze confidence and potential, giving Purdue possible perimeter stoppers to replace the tenacious Lance Jones. With Edey on the roster, the Boilermakers never ranked better than 295th in defensive turnover rate (his freshman year). But in 2019-20, the year before he arrived, Purdue was 80th in that stat (KenPom). Heide, Colvin and Smith can all be a part of resurrecting that pesky defense.
Heide’s outrageous putback dunk in the national title game opened some eyes to his wild athleticism, and Colvin is simply “more experience” away from being a key contributor. Both players shot over 40% from deep as well; though the sample was limited, that at least portrays their ability to knock down shots when called upon.
Concerns
Ok, that’s a bunch of paragraphs downplaying Edey’s impact. But…that’s the rosy view. Edey was laughably dominant. He racked up 30 KenPom Game MVPs last year; second-most nationally was Dayton’s DaRon Holmes with 18. He led the nation in scoring and ranked second in rebounding. Every single on/off metric, without fail, shows Edey as one of the absolute most vital players in the country.
Hoop-Explorer, which adjusts for competition, had Purdue at +41.7 points per 100 possessions when Edey played. When he sat – a sample of over 500 possessions – that plummeted to just +3.8 per 100. CBB Analytics underscores this staggering gap:
Yes, Edey ranked in the *100th* percentile in Net Rating. Despite what overzealous commitment announcements might tell you, 100 is the highest percentage! Of note – the second-highest rated player there, Jones, is also gone.
Again, Painter is still here, as is a system that wins basically every year. Purdue has an entire offseason to reshape roles without Edey. But the fact remains that he was an otherworldly presence, and the Boilers were merely decent when he took a breather. Everyone is stepping into hugely different – and bigger – roles without the man in the middle.
Areas of special concern: the loss of utter rim dominance. When Edey played, Purdue shot 64.8% at the rim and allowed a rim attempt frequency of just 28.1%. When he sat, those numbers became 53.2% and 35.9%, respectively (Hoop-Explorer). Are TKR and Furst actually ready for what awaits them? Can Jacobsen get on the floor immediately?
Elsewhere, Mason Gillis is an underrated loss. Purdue could play some true four-out lineups when he was on the court; Duke will surely enjoy a 4-man who hits almost half his threes. No one on the remaining roster offers that kind of game unless Brian Waddell makes a sizable leap. This spot is one where Purdue could have utilized the portal. Painter is careful about who he takes, but it’s easy to see the fit for a bigger floor spacer here.
In that same vein, backcourt depth is glaringly unproven (aside from simply shifting Colvin and Heide up the lineup). A bench option is incoming freshman Gicarri Harris, an athletic and competitive top 100 recruit who got to train with the Mexican National Team this summer and won a Georgia state championship as a senior. Jack Benter and CJ Cox appear further down the pecking order, but hey – Braden Smith did ok as an unheralded 3-star freshman.
Summary
Nothing is a lock in college basketball, particularly with the amount of roster turnover these days. But Purdue has found its way to 12+ Big Ten wins and an NCAA Tournament berth in nine of the last 10 seasons. Zach Edey or not, Painter and the Boilermakers win basketball games.
However, the stark divide in Purdue’s performance with and without Edey last year is, at minimum, a reason for hesitation. We know what these players look like with the nation’s best player dominating games and scouting reports, but this season will offer an entirely different context for every returning Boilermaker. Perhaps Purdue will regret not reeling in any transfers to compensate for its considerable losses. More likely, though, is that Smith, Loyer and the rest of the on-court Paint Crew continue the metronomic tradition of winning in West Lafayette.