Roster
Optimism
Mike Woodson enters a pivotal year in Bloomington after a rocky four-year start to his college coaching career. Indiana has yet to finish in the KenPom top 25 in his tenure, nor has it made the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament – expectations of the rabid IU fanbase. With his back against the wall, Woodson has the best roster of his tenure, which means this is a true “make or break” season.
Mercifully, Woodson finally acknowledged the importance of guards in the modern game after generally ignoring them in the transfer portal. Myles Rice is a proven winner after leading Washington State to its first NCAA Tournament berth and win since 2008, and Kanaan Carlyle has plenty of fans in the NBA Draft community as a high-upside combo guard. Paired with veteran slasher Trey Galloway, IU has actual playmaking depth following a season undermined by Xavier Johnson’s injuries.
That trio likely will not be the focal point of the offense, though, if Woodson’s tendencies are any indicator. His stable of talented big men has dictated it somewhat, but the Hoosiers have been a post-heavy team on his watch:
Last year’s squad was extremely effective on the block, as well, ranking in the 92nd percentile nationally in points per possession. Expect that to continue with Malik Reneau back in the fold and battering ram Oumar Ballo coming to town from Tucson.
Spacing issues often made IU a frustrating watch, but the big-to-big chemistry between Reneau and Kel’El Ware was a clear bright spot. The lefty Reneau combined an effective bully ball game and a soft touch on his left hook with a knack for finding Ware for electrifying alley-oops:
Ballo is not the same kind of long, bouncy threat that Ware was, but he carves out plenty of space and is an authoritative finisher. Ballo also scored efficiently in the post for Arizona, making him a natural fit in Woodson’s system. Both players are also extremely effective on the offensive glass, another likely source of easy buckets for this Hoosier group.
The interior production was especially impressive given the total dearth of perimeter production and spacing. Though IU is not suddenly flush with shooting, Mackenzie Mgbako and Big Ten defector Luke Goode offer some potency on the wing. Mgbako was long known for having a flammable stroke in his prep career, but he had some seriously cold stretches as a rookie. However, his 38% conversion rate in Big Ten contests displayed his capabilities. Goode is immediately the best sniper on the roster, a proven shot maker who has drilled 39% of his triples through 76 career games. His game lacks any semblance of versatility, though; he is a catch-and-shoot guy through and through.
Perhaps the biggest sigh of relief for IU fans will be having real depth and lineup flexibility. Last year’s team was so desperately reliant on its top players, falling off a cliff whenever too many bench players got on the court:
That CBB Analytics graphic shows the massive impact that Galloway, Ware, Mgbako and Reneau all had, while everyone else – especially the true reserves like Anthony Walker and CJ Gunn – turned Indiana into a horrific bottom-feeder.
The previously mentioned seven guys (in bold) are rotational locks, as is Bryson Tucker, a heralded freshman from the DMV area. Like Mgbako, he’s another malleable piece who can play on the wing or downshift into a smallball 4 in a pinch. His offensive game is more downhill-based than Mgbako’s, but he can hit perimeter jumpers as well. Woodson likely will not be able to resist jumbo lineups with Rice or Galloway at the point plus Tucker and Mgbako on the wings.
IU can also go smaller with Gabe Cupps or Anthony Leal. Neither player will look at the basket unless absolutely wide open, but Cupps did start 22 games while Johnson dealt with injuries and showed some defensive peskiness. Leal, meanwhile, is a true program lifer who came up with some huge plays. Those guys make a lot more sense as 9th/10th men, rather than 5th starter/6th man.
Concerns
This roster is unquestionably talented – that is hardly up for debate. IU’s NIL program did its job, giving Woodson significantly more options in how to deploy his team. Still, though, some systemic issues that have plagued IU throughout his tenure may still flare up.
Even with Goode joining the ranks, IU still has spacing concerns. How much the Indiana native will actually play remains an open discussion, and the Hoosiers are banking on tangible progression from all of Rice, Carlyle and Mgabko. If Rice’s jumper does not come along, the likely starting lineup is alarmingly shooting-starved.
Those guys are also all playing for a coach who seems to despise the three-point arc. IU has ranked 351st and 354th in three-point attempt rate the last two years; part of having spacing is instilling the confidence to unleash. The Hoosiers often look unsure of themselves in Woodson’s system, and if IU cannot find a more palatable shot diet balance, the offense will again be disjointed for extended stretches.
Rice and Carlyle are also tasked with jolting IU’s anemic ball screen attack to life. Galloway is an intelligent passer, but his lack of scoring punch makes him easy to guard in the pick-and-roll. IU finished in the 9th percentile in PPP via ball screen scorers; though not the crux of the attack, it simply cannot remain that dire this year if IU is to reach its potential.
An even bigger concern is the Hoosiers’ ball screen defense, which got unceremoniously roasted over and over last season. Over 30% of IU defensive possessions ended with a pick-and-roll (including passes out of that action that led to a shot); IU ranked 311th nationally defending those. With mobile bigs and a true shot-blocker, that’s terrible.
Ballo is less mobile and less vertically explosive than Ware, but perhaps his experience and bulk can remedy some of IU’s problems. Rice and Carlyle also can be strong point-of-attack defenders; the thin Cupps was frequently overmatched here and could not get through or around screens quickly enough.
Again, another Woodson faux pas lurks here. Indiana repeatedly over-helped off shooters last year for seemingly no reason. Off-ball screening action also frequently generated open looks as the Hoosiers were caught ball-watching. They ultimately ranked 307th in 3PA rate allowed, and quality shooting teams shredded them. More experience, depth and perimeter length can help here, but it has to be drilled well in practice before it’s truly solved.
Summary
While Woodson did get IU back to the NCAA Tournament in both of his first two seasons, those Hoosiers often felt like they were still leaving something on the table. Woodson, an IU alum, has some supporters in important places, but he also now has a roster that will leave him short on excuses if it falters. Indiana fans expect to contend for (and win) Big Ten titles and Sweet 16 appearances, and opening up the NIL war chest has put this team in position to do so.
That amps up the pressure on a coach whose seat is certainly pre-heating, at the very least. Indiana must improve on both sides of the ball to become a real top 20 team, as the rim dominance via Reneau and Ballo can only go so far. Though the Hoosiers had some major offseason victories, the on-court product must now match the potential.