Roster
Optimism
Baylor has become a staple atop the national standings under Scott Drew, who inherited a complete lemon in 2003-04 and methodically turned it into lemonade. The Bears have ranked in the KenPom top 15 five straight seasons and have earned a top three seed in the NCAA Tournament in each of those years (including 2020).
Offense has led the way the past four seasons and should be the driving force this year as well. Over the past four years, Baylor has ranked 2nd, 8th, 2nd, and 6th in adjusted offensive efficiency despite a decent amount of roster turnover. Drew runs a ball-screen-focused attack and deploys multiple shooters on the floor at once. The Bears ranked in the top 15 of pick-n-roll frequency last season (Synergy) and rarely rely on post play as a primary scoring option. Offensive rebounding is always a staple of a Drew-coached team as well – Baylor has notched a top 25 offensive rebounding rate in 11 straight seasons.
Shooting will remain a strength this season for the Bears. Jayden Nunn and Langston Love return as two perimeter snipers, and Drew added reinforcements in the portal with Jeremy Roach and Jalen Celestine. Star freshmen VJ Edgecombe and Robert O. Wright III appear to be capable outside shooters, and even transfer Norchad Omier expanded his game to the perimeter last season. JUCO recruit Yanis Ndjonga gives Drew yet another stretch option in the frontcourt.
Drew’s work on the recruiting trail was nothing short of excellent this offseason – both in the transfer portal and in the high school ranks. Roach might’ve been overshadowed at Duke, but he was still a four-year starter at point guard for one of the best programs in the country. Omier, another senior, is a walking double-double and an All-ACC player. Celestine is a rock-solid support piece with Pac-12 starting experience from Cal.
Edgecombe is the next freshman star at Baylor, continuing the legacy of players who came before him like Jeremy Sochan, Kendall Brown, Keyonte George, and Ja’Kobe Walter. Edgecombe is a top 5 recruit who can do literally everything on the floor – he should impact the game defensively with his length and athleticism and be a go-to scoring option on the offensive end.
Wright has “future star PG” written all over him, as the Montverde pedigree would suggest. Top 50 freshman Jason Asemota adds even more athleticism to the roster on the wing / in the frontcourt.
To put it plainly, there is a near-zero percent chance that this group isn’t elite on the offensive side of the ball.
Concerns
While everything points to Baylor remaining elite offensively, it’s worth considering the loss of another key assistant on the bench. John Jakus followed Jerome Tang’s lead and took the FAU job this offseason, depriving Drew of another genius-level basketball mind. Jakus was known as a big-time recruiter and offensive guru. Drew himself said no coach in the country is superior to Jakus from an X’s and O’s standpoint. He helped develop Baylor’s successful free-flowing, spaced attack that has been wrecking opponents for the past several years.
Tang’s departure resulted in a significant impact to Baylor’s defense. Adjusted efficiency on that side of the ball cratered to 107th in 2022-23 from 13th the year prior, and last season’s squad ranked just 72nd nationally. Coincidentally (or not), Baylor has not seen the second weekend of the Big Dance since Tang left.
Baylor was bludgeoned inside the arc last season, allowing the highest FG% at the rim in the country and ranking 312th in FG% allowed on 2-point jumpers (Hoop-Math). Though the Bears did well disallowing chances at the rim, they could not stop anyone when opponents did break through. This sentiment carried to transition defense where Baylor ranked 314th nationally in FG% allowed but 8th in FGA rate allowed.
While ShotQuality suggests the Bears played analytically sound defense, the fact is they were smoked in pick-n-roll situations. Per Synergy, Baylor ranked 269th in points per possession allowed to PnR ball-handlers and 359th in points per possession allowed to PnR roll-men. Guards were oftentimes lazy fighting through screens and bigs were unable to contain ball handlers in drop coverage.
Drew mixed in some zone and press looks last season which fared a little better than his straight man scheme, but the results still weren’t ideal. For how good of a shot-blocker Yves Missi was, he was continually beaten in the post and was a cone in pick-n-roll situations. Omier had a better on/off defensive impact than Missi at Miami last season, but Synergy still graded him as a below average post defender. Perhaps his mobility will help improve Baylor’s ball screen defense. Josh Ojianwuna will see more time at the 5 this season, but he too struggled to get stops on the block and in ball screen coverage last season.
It seems no matter what combination of players Drew rolls out this year, Baylor is destined to once again struggle defensively. Notably, since 2007 (when Drew got the program rolling), Baylor has had nine teams rank outside the KenPom top 60 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Of those nine teams, three missed the NCAA Tournament, two exited in the First Round, three more lost in Second Round, and one made the Sweet Sixteen.
Summary
Baylor should remain a top 15 in the country for a sixth straight year. The roster is stuffed to the brim with offensive talent and has an ideal mix of experience and upside. Drew is one of the very best coaches in college basketball and – even with the loss of another great assistant – he should have his Bears competing for a Big 12 title and high seed in March.
If the defense finally comes around, Baylor is a legitimate national title contender. If it doesn’t, then we likely see yet another high-seed + early Tourney exit situation in Waco.